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Knowledge Elicitation via Sequential Probabilistic Inference for High-Dimensional Prediction

机译:基于序贯概率推理的知识启发   高维预测

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摘要

Prediction in a small-sized sample with a large number of covariates, the"small n, large p" problem, is challenging. This setting is encountered inmultiple applications, such as precision medicine, where obtaining additionalsamples can be extremely costly or even impossible, and extensive researcheffort has recently been dedicated to finding principled solutions for accurateprediction. However, a valuable source of additional information, domainexperts, has not yet been efficiently exploited. We formulate knowledgeelicitation generally as a probabilistic inference process, where expertknowledge is sequentially queried to improve predictions. In the specific caseof sparse linear regression, where we assume the expert has knowledge about thevalues of the regression coefficients or about the relevance of the features,we propose an algorithm and computational approximation for fast and efficientinteraction, which sequentially identifies the most informative features onwhich to query expert knowledge. Evaluations of our method in experiments withsimulated and real users show improved prediction accuracy already with a smalleffort from the expert.
机译:在具有大量协变量的小型样本中,“小n大p”问题的预测具有挑战性。在诸如精密医学之类的多种应用中会遇到这种设置,在这种应用中获取额外的样品可能是非常昂贵的,甚至是不可能的,并且近来广泛的研究努力致力于寻找用于精确预测的原则性解决方案。但是,尚未有效利用附加信息的宝贵来源,领域专家。我们通常将知识启发式描述为概率推理过程,在该过程中顺序查询专家知识以改善预测。在稀疏线性回归的特定情况下,假设专家对回归系数的值或特征的相关性有所了解,我们提出了一种用于快速高效交互的算法和计算近似值,该算法和计算近似值可顺序地识别出最有用的特征查询专家知识。在模拟用户和真实用户的实验中对我们方法的评估表明,专家的努力已经提高了预测精度。

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